Friday 1st August 2008

Welcome to Hold or Fold - The UK's only Poker E-Letter dedicated to
helping YOU become a better player!

In this week's E-Letter -

       *Another Cold Deck - watch it and weep!

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Hiya there and how have you been this week??

While you are reading this - I will be enjoying my last night out on my greek island and hopefully
I'll be beautifully tanned and looking gorgeous !!

So - still no poker for me in the last week, but I'll be back and raring to go for next week and I'm
hoping the rest will have done me some good - but we'll see !!!

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Another Cold Deck - watch it and weep!

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Obviously - I watch tons of poker on the telly and I'm always on the lookout for hands that I
can write about in my e-letter. Usually it will be because there is a certain point I want to make
or it is because something dramatic happened or it was the way the commentators talked about it etc...

I can always tell if it's a hand that I DEFINITELY want to write about because I will pause it half
way through and go back to the start to record it before I see how it turns out...

Well that's what I did for this hand -

It comes from the PartyPoker European Open that was shown a few weeks ago...

There are 6 players left and the Blinds are 3,000/6,000.

Dave Mattey is first to act - he picks up As & 9c and very conservatively throws them in the
muck - well he is Under the Gun and it's not a good hand in that position - well - it's not really
a very good hand in any position...
 

Phil Curtis is next to act and he has 10h and 10d.
 

He only has 29,000 left and so With very little hesitation, he puts all his chips in the middle as
he is short-stacked.

Juha Hillpi is next to act and he folds his cards.

Next is Annette Oberstad and she picks up Ac & Ad.
 

She asks: "How much is it?"

The answer is 29,000 and she goes into the tank to decide what to do.

Jesse May is commentating: "She has a decision to make doesn't she - if she wants to isolate
or try and trap or is it an automatic all-in??"

Phil Hellmuth is also commentating; "Well, it's not an automatic all-in - I mean - for 29,000
I'd like to see her just call in case someone picks up a hand behind her like Jacks, Queens or
Kings - or - Ace/King - give them a chance to get involved - you know what I mean?? - In fact
- I hate the raise!"

Meanwhile Annette is still playing with her chips and trying to decide just how to play this.

After a minute or so - she puts in 29,000 chips and just calls.

The next (unknown) player folds and action moves over to Roland de Wolfe.

Roland picks up Jc & Js !!
 

Roland goes all-in for his remaining 55,000 chips and Annette insta-called !!

Jesse and Phil both holler together: "OHHHHH and Roland - she's got him !!!"

Jesse: "And when she insta-called, Roland knew instantly that she had Aces!! We're going to
lose two players !!"

Phil: "By her NOT raising - she induced Roland to move all-in - If she would've raised - she
would've raised him out. This is a pretty unlucky hand."

The odds are very interesting:

Annette:  67%
Phil:        18%
Roland:    14%

Jesse; "Was de Wolfe, I mean, he had no options there - he just can't er..."

Phil: "Well there was an all-in and a call there - and Annette may have called with Sevens,
Eights, Nines - you know - Ace/Jack - Ace/Queen - Alot of hands she could've had so - "

The Flop comes down: 6s 3s 7c
   

No help for anyone -

The odds are now:

Annette:   76%
Phil:           9%
Roland:      12%

The Turn is 4S and this gives Roland a chance to hit a Flush - and a 5 would split it as long as it wasn't a spade.


The odds are now:

Annette:  64%
Phil:          2%
Roland:     27%

All the players are laughing good-naturedly -

The River comes down:


Wait for it...


...


...


...


10c !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


A 2% chance of winning - don't forget - the 10S would have been no good - it was only the
10S that could have won Phil the main pot - and of course Annette wins the side pot.

Phil Curtis shouts: "OH MY GOOD GOD !!"

Phil Hellmuth shouts: "It's a TEN !! He had ONE out - it had to be the 10 of clubs - that's
Amazing !!"

Roland gets up, shakes everyone's hand and leaves the room.

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Post Mortem

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This was just, what they call, a Cold Deck - Pocket Aces -v- Pocket Jacks -v- Pocket Tens -

If this had happened online - there would have been lots of murmurings about how poker
websites are all rigged - but we get alot of hands like this online because there are so
many more hands played per hour than compared to live play.

As it happened - I think Roland could have folded his hand -

With an All-In and a call in front of him - he can't have had all that much faith in his Pocket
Jacks - he said after in a post-match interview - that he had been very patient and been
playing very tight but the blinds were only 3,000/ 6,000 - so he can't have been waiting that
long?

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Well I hope you have a good week - may the cards be with you and I'll see you again next Friday.

All the best

Meg Arana
Hold or Fold